亚洲金融危机五年后看人民币汇率保持稳定的原因——关于人民币币值与中国进出口贸易关系的分析

亚洲金融危机之后 ,以及国际经济出现一些波动时 ,许多学者都主张人民币贬值 ,以抵消危机对中国外贸的负面影响。人民币贬值也曾是中国长期使用的促进进出口手段之一 ,为鼓励出口发挥了重要作用 ,但是其作用的发挥是有条件的。亚洲金融危机后 ,由于国际经济环境和中国外贸特征的变化 ,中国出口需求对人民币贬值的弹性趋于减小。本文从人民币币值与中国外贸关系的角度 ,揭示出在亚洲金融危机后人民币汇率保持稳定的基本原因。这种分析对于类似的国际经济与金融波动同样合适

Reasons of stability of RMB exchange rate after the financial crisis in Asia ——Analysis of the relations between RMB exchange rate and China's foreign trade

After the financial crisis in Asia, many scholars propose to depreciate RMB in order to offset the adverse influence on Chinese foreign trade. Devaluation was one of the methods to promote export for a long time in China, and it did play an important role in scale up export .But its effect is conditional.This paper discusses the reasons of stability of RMB exchange rate after the financial crisis in Asia from the viewpoint of the relalions of RMB and Chinese foreign trade. The paper argues that after the financial crisis in Asia, devaluation of RMB can not prompt Chinese export as effectively as before, because flexibility of demand on Chinese export commodities tends to minish along with the change of international economic circumstance and character of foreign trade around the crisis. Besides, there are other constraints such as competition countries and "J curve effect " to the role of devaluation of RMB.