中国铁路犯罪:回顾与反思

近20年来,中国铁路犯罪呈下降趋势,但在犯罪类型上呈现出侵犯财产类犯罪占比大、毒品类犯罪持续上升的态势.通过回归分析等实证研究方法,发现中国铁路犯罪的发展与铁路经济、人口因素以及社会整体犯罪均无统计学上的关联性.铁路犯罪的异常主要出现在2004-2009年前后,该时期的异常下降状况,无法完全以铁路系统的经济、人口状况变化、铁路公安管辖权范围缩减等外在因素来解释,铁路公安转制带来的不稳定性应对此数据异常担责.

Chinese Railway Crimes: Review and Reflection

As for the railway crimes, China was declining in the period of nearly past 20 years and crimes against property accounting for a large proportion, while the drug crimes showed an upward trend. According to linear regression analysis and other empirical research methods, there were no statistically relationship between railway crimes and their railway economic and population factors,or even with the overall crime trend. According to the statistics,during the period of the year of 2004 to 2009,Chinese railway crimes began to drift away from the overall crime trend. The abnormal decline trend could not be completely explained by those external causes—the changes of railway economic or passenger flow, or the reduction of criminal jurisdiction scope of railway police. The instability of the railway police from the process of restructuring should be responsible for the abnormal data.