中国碳交易政策扩散的影响因素、路径差异与减碳效果研究——基于省域数据的实证分析

碳交易市场的建设有助于实现全球碳平衡,而碳交易政策扩散对于促进中国碳交易市场的持续健康发展有着重要的现实意义。在我国碳交易市场建设不断深化的情境下,有必要识别省域碳交易政策扩散的多维影响要素,检验不同扩散路径下的政策效果差异,总结政策扩散经验。文章基于省域面板数据,首先运用事件史分析法,通过Cox比例风险模型发现,能源政策的落实、地方政府的综合服务能力和社会创新能力是碳交易政策扩散的关键驱动要素;其次,利用合成控制法进一步检验,发现主动扩散地区的减排效果弱于试点扩散地区,试点扩散地区对主动扩散地区的激励和带动作用有限,试点成果尚未得到有效学习和复制。为此,在我国统一碳交易市场的建设过程中,应强化中央统筹协调与地方相关举措之间的协同配合,依托有力的政策驱动激发我国碳交易制度活力,提升碳减排效果,形成路径清晰、梯度有序的政策扩散机制,以稳步实现2030“碳达峰”、2060“碳中和”的目标。

Influencing Factors,Path Differences and Carbon Reduction Effects of Carbon Emission Trading Policy Diffusion:Empirical Research Based on Provincial Data

The diffusion of carbon emission trading policy is of great practical significance to promote the sustainable and healthy development of China’s carbon trading market.Based on event history analysis and synthetic control meth?od,this paper identifies the multi-dimensional influencing factors of China’s provincial carbon trading policy diffu?sion,and examines the differences in policy effects under different diffusion paths.Firstly,using the Cox proportional hazard model,it is found that the implementation of energy policies,the comprehensive service capabilities of local gov?ernments,and social innovation capabilities are the key driving factors for the diffusion of carbon trading policies.Sec?ondly,after testing with the synthetic control method,it is found that the carbon emission reduction effect of the active diffusion area is weaker than that of the pilot diffusion area.The pilot diffusion area has limited driving effects for the active diffusion area,and the results of the pilot have not been effectively learned and copied.Therefore,in the con?struction of the national carbon trading market,the coordinated governance of unified guidance from the central govern?ment and strong local supervision should be strengthened,relying on strong policy drives to stimulate the vitality of Chi?nese carbon trading system,forming a policy diffusion mechanism with a clear path and an orderly gradient,and then steadily achieving the goals of“carbon peak”in 2030 and“carbon neutral”in 2060.