养老基金投资的不确定性与投资组合分析

在中国个人账户基金积累规模日益扩大的情况下,有限的投资工具和较低的回报率将难以实现这部分基金的保值增值,也很难为退休人口提供一个适度的养老金替代率水平。中国养老基金的投资组合策略有其自身的特点。首先,对一个简化的投资风险最优模型进行了分析;其次,利用风险最优模型研究了养老基金的投资组合,并确定了股票投资的最优水平;最后,针对中国养老基金的投资策略提出相关的政策建议。

Analysis on Uncertainty of Old Pension Investment and the Combination of Investment

While the funds of the individual account will accumulate increasingly in China, the restriction of investment tools and lower return rate of funds is difficult to keep pension funds increment, and to provide the proper level of the pension rate of substitution. This paper studies the portfolio strategy of Chinese pension funds. Firstly, it analyzes a simple risk-optimal model of the investment. Secondly, it studies the portfolio of pension funds with the risk-optimal model of the investment, and analyzes the proper level of the stock investment. Lastly, it makes some policy suggestions for the investment strategy of Chinese pension funds.