中国各省经济增长与环境污染关系的研究与预测——对环境库兹涅茨曲线的内在机理研究

本文利用2000年到2010年的数据对中国各省经济增长与环境污染关系(EKC)的转折点进行了预测,从规模效应、结构效应、技术效应三个方面分析了EKC形成的内在机理.同时对转折点到来时间可能出现的提前和延后进行了分析,并针对EKC形成的内在机制就如何保证环境污染逆转趋势的出现做了分析研究.预测结果显示中国不同省份转折点到来时间是存在较大差异的,这种差异主要是不同省份的结构效应和技术效应大小不同造成的,这个结果也为研究使EKC转折点提前到来的机制提供了理论依据.针对一些省份的转折点出现时间在2020年之后的实际情况,在考虑“环境承载阀值”之后对传统EKC进行的修正表明确实存在在转折点到来前触及环境承载能力极值,进而对生态环境造成毁灭性破坏的风险,本文也对这种风险的规避进行了研究.

A Study on the Relationship between Economic Growth and Environmental Pollution in China

This paper uses data from 2000 to 2010 to forecast the turning points of EKCO in different provinces of China,and analyzes the inherent mechanism of the formation of EKC from the perspectives of scale effect,structural effect,and technical effect.In addition,the paper also conducts an analysis of the possible early and late arrival of the turning point.Forecast results show that the arrival time of the turning point greatly varies from province to province in China,and the difference is mainly resulted from the different level of structure effect and technical effect in different provinces.This research also provides a theoretical basis for the arrival of the turning point in advance.As to the prospects that the turning point in some provinces may only come after 2020,the paper takes into account the " environmental bearing capacity" of traditional EKC corrections that exists at the turning point of arrival before hitting the environmental bearing capacity of extreme value,and conducts a study on the avoidance of the risk of causing destructive damage to the environment.