新冠疫情与非典疫情、国际金融危机对就业的影响与对策比较分析

2003年以来,我国经历了非典疫情、国际金融危机和本次新型冠状病毒疫情等三次较大规模的事件。本研究就三次大事件对就业的主要影响以及应对措施进行了对比分析。比较而言,非典疫情对局部行业和地区影响较大,并且持续时间短、恢复较快,因而对就业的影响总体是短期的、结构性的、局部性的,但影响程度大于对经济的影响;金融危机影响范围广、持续时间长、冲击力强,就业受到影响较为严重,失业率显著上升、农民工大规模返乡、高校毕业生就业难等问题十分突出;新冠疫情对经济社会产生严重冲击,影响巨大,范围广、程度深,并且因与春节假期重叠导致返工困难,就业总量压力加剧,结构性矛盾非常突出,失业水平可能达到新高。为应对当前疫情对经济社会和就业影响,要在现有援企稳岗政策基础上,进一步加大支持力度,重点关注农民工、高校毕业生、疫区就业人员、失业人员等群体,提供更有效的就业帮扶。

The Impact of the COVID-19 Outbreak,SARS Epidemic and the Global Financial Crisis on Employment and Comparative Analysis of their Responses

China has experienced such three massive events as SARS epidemic,international financial crisis and the COVID-19 outbreak since 2003.This study makes a comparative analysis on the impact of the three massive events on economy and employment as well as the corresponding measures to cope with them.The SARS epidemic had a great impact on some industries and regions which lasted only a short period and had a rapid recovery.Therefore,its impact on employment was generally with the characteristics of short-term,structural effects and limited affected areas,but the extent to which the impact have on employment is much greater than that on economy.The global financial crisis had an impact with a wide range,a long duration and a strong shock,under which employment was seriously affected,and some issues were very prominent,including the unemployment rate rising significantly,a massive migrant workers returning to their hometown and college graduates having difficulties in finding a job.The COVID-19 outbreak has a serious impact on the economy and society with a wide range and a great extent.Moreover,due to the COVID-19 outbreak happening during the Spring Festival holiday,it is difficult for most people who has already returned to their home for the holiday to go back to work again,which causes an increasing pressure on the total employment.So the structural contradiction is very prominent,and the unemployment level may reach a new high.In response to the impact of the current COVID-19 outbreak on the economy,society and employment,on the basis of the policies of assisting enterprises and retaining jobs,it is necessary to enhance the support,focusing on specific groups of people such as migrant workers,college graduates,employed persons and unemployed people in the affected areas to provide more effective employment assistance for these people.