区位、地缘与流动人口流入地的选择

本文在理论分析的基础上,采用工具变量Probit模型分析区位与地缘等空间地理因素对流动人口流入地选择的影响,试图从微观视角对当前学界和政府普遍关注的流动人口分布格局的形成原因进行解释。研究表明:区位和地缘均显著影响流动人口流入地的选择,其中区位因素中交通通达度和非农就业密度的正向影响远远超过了地理距离的负向作用,由于北上广深等超大城市的交通通达度远远领先于其他非超大城市,非农就业密度同样高于其他大中小城市,从而吸引了大量流动人口克服地理距离产生的迁移成本流入到超大城市中;而地缘因素对流动人口流入地选择的影响更多的是经济上的联系和依赖,而非单纯地理上的“临近”。

Location,Geographical Relationship and Choice of Migration Destination of Floating Population

Based on the theoretical analysis,this paper uses IV-probit model to analyze the impact of location and geographical relationship on the choices of destination by migrants,in order to explain the reasons for the formation of the distribution pattern of the f loating population in China from microscopic perspective.Studies have shown that:the location and geographical relationship significantly affect floating population's inflows option.Specifically,the positive impact of traffic access degree and non-farm employment density far exceeded the negative effect of geographic distance,due to the traffic access degree of mega-cities such as Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou and Shenzhen and so on being far ahead of other nonmegacities,and non-agricultural employment density also higher than other cities.As a result,a large number of floating population are attracted to flow into these megacities despite having to pay extra traffic costs of migration due to geographical distance;and the influence of geographical relationship on the choice of inflows by migrants is more about economic links and dependencies,rather than pure geographic close.