地震预测预报能与不能的争论

对破坏力巨大的地震的预测、预报,既是地震理论上的难题,也是技术上、实践上和政治政策上的难题。在我国曾有过成功的经验,但也有人为因素不能回避的惨痛的教训。在学术上存在着地震不可预测预报与地震可预测预报的尖锐争论,而这种争论又因为掺杂了政治上的因素而变得更加微妙、复杂、纠缠不清和难以深入,也制约着防震减灾事业的发展。地震不可预测预报论是目前的主流观点。不可预测预报论与可预测预报论的学术立场分歧也必然延伸到人们的防震减灾的社会实践当中。六十余年来,可预测预报论者积极进行预测预报上的学术创新,先后诞生过李四光的地质力学理论、翁文波的信息预测理论和天灾预测法、耿庆国的旱震关系理论、钱复业等的"潮汐力谐振共振短临前兆模型"、钱学森的"开放的复杂巨系统论"与"定性与定量的综合集成法"等等理论和技术成果。可预测预报论突破传统科学的还原论思维模式,积极发展现代系统论的思维模式,并挖掘中国古代传统科学中的一些要素和整理利用中国古代积累下来的对自然灾变观测的丰富资料,进行理论创新,并在地震预测预报实践中取得了一定的成效,但目前仍然克服不了种种理论的批判和质疑。尽管如此,可预测预报论者仍坚信如果能更好地克服思想上、体制上的障碍,中国地震预测预报科学研究工作者能创新出一种"半经验半理论的系统科学方法"的地震预测预报理论,在该领域为人类的科学进步事业做出巨大贡献。

Dispute on Capability and Incapability for Earthquake Prediction and Forecast

The prediction and forecast of massive destructive earthquakes are not only a problem in earthquake theory,but also that in technique,practice and political policy.There have been in China successful experiences and unavoidable agonizing lessons due to human factors.Academically,the disputes exist on the capability or incapability for earthquake predication,which have become more complicated,subtle and entangled with the involvement of political factors,and which restrict the development of the course of quake-prevention and disaster-reduction.The mainstream viewpoint is currently of incapability to predict earthquakes.The academic differences between the two viewpoints inevitably extend to social practice in quake-prevention and disaster-reduction.During over sixty years,those in favor of prediction have made academic innovation actively and contributed a number of theories and technical achievements on the prediction,producing in a succession the theory of geological mechanics by Li Siguang,the informational prediction theory and natural disaster prediction methods by Weng Wenbo,the drought relative theory by Geng Qing-guo,"Short-Impending Anomaly Precursory Mode with Resonance Tidal Forces" by Qian Fuye et al.,the "Theory of Open Complex Giant System" and "The Qualitative and Quantitative Comprehensive Integration Means" by Qian Xuesen.By breakthrough from the thinking mode of traditional reductionism the predicable theories actively develop the thinking mode of modern system theory,and probe into the elements of Chinese traditional sciences conforming and utilizing the rich data accumulated since ancient times in China on observation of natural disasters.Some progresses have been made in theoretical innovation and earthquake prediction practice,although various existing theoretical criticisms and challenges still cannot be overcome.In spite of these,those in favor of prediction still firmly believe that by better overcome obstacles in thoughts and in system,Chinese earthquake scientists are capable of producing an "experience plus theory" method in system science for earthquake prediction,to make great contribution in this field for the progressive course of human science.