人口“乡-城”流动下城镇失业保险基金支出预测：以西安市为例

本文运用人口发展方程与回归预测方法建立了人口“乡-城”流动规模测算模型。根据社会保障精算原理构建了人口“乡-城”流动下的失业保险基金支出测算模型；在此基础上，对2009—2020年西安市失业保险基金支出额进行了预测，结果表明，西安市失业保险基金支出总量年均递增12．93％，由2．67亿元增长到10．19亿元，其中，由“乡-城”人口流动引发的失业保险基金支出额从1232．75万元增长到2．58亿元。年均递增31．85％。

Forecast on Cities Unemployment Insurance Fund Expenditure under Migration Movement in "rural-city":A Case of Xi'an

By using population growth equation and regression forecast method,this paper has established the model of scale for migration movement in ＂rural-city＂; according to social security actuarial principles,the forecast model of unemployment insurance fund expenditure under migration movement in ＂rural--city＂ has been constructed;Based on which, unemployment insurance fund expenditure for XiSan during 2009-2020 can be forecast. The results show that total expenditures of unemploy- ment insurance fund for Xi＇an increased at an average annual 12.93 percent, from 2.67 billion yuan to 1.019 billion yuan; of which, expenditures caused by migration movement in ＂rural-city＂ has increased from 12,327,500 yuan to 258 miUion yuan increasing at an average annual percent.