“报童问题”订购决策的实验研究及行为分析

对“报童问题”中的订购行为进行实验研究。结果表明:当产品随机需求服从正态分布时，订购量依然存在“拉向中心”效应，并受实验需求样本的影响，在均值高的需求样本下订购量更高，并且获得了更高的收益率。保持需求样本相同，给决策者动态反馈候选方案的历史利润统计信息，在低成本下有助于提高订购水平，在高成本下随着订购经验的增加，订购量也有向理论最优值变动的趋势，这说明报童对信息的认知有一个学习过程。对订货数据建立了动态面板模型，并进行了系统GMM估计，发现订购量的锚定系数和订购量偏差调整系数显著为正，表明前后两期订购量密切相关，属于一个动态的调整过程，同时也证实了报童订购行为有较强的需求追逐倾向，这种倾向与成本大小无关，但与是否有历史利润统计信息反馈有关。

A Laboratory Study of Decision Making and Behavior Analysis in "Newsvendor Problem"

Decision-making in the‘newsvendor problem' using laboratory experiment is studied. In comparison with the literatures which suppose uniform customer demand conditions, the orders still show a "pull-to-center" effect when the demand for the product follows a normal distribution. The participants' order quantities are also affected by demand samples. The order quantities are higher and the participants attain higher profits when the mean of the demand sample is higher. Keeping the same demand samples, it can improve performance significantly in the low cost condition if providing history profits of all the feasible choices for the participants. The order quantities move towards the optimal value only with the decision-maker's experience improving in the high cost condition, which shows decision-makers have a learning capability to the giving information. A dynamic panel data model with ordering data is constructed. The GMM results from the dynamic panel model indicate that the parameters of anchoring on the previous order quantity and adjusting ordering deviation are significantly positive, which show that the order quantities of adjacent two periods are closely related and ordering is a dynamic adjustment process. The results also show that subjects have a strong demand chasing tendency which is unrelated to cost but related to whether feedback about history profit statistics is provided.