养老金新政:新旧养老保险政策的替代率测算

本论文通过模型在一定的精算假设下作了比较分析,发现在同样的精算假设下测算,改革之前的养老金替代率要明显高于原来预计的目标替代率,其主要原因在于在个人账户空账的条件下,个人账户假设的利息率是比较低的,而做实个人账户之后,资本市场可以获得合理的利息回报,个人账户积累的效率提高,加上基础养老金比例增加,是改革后养老金目标替代率没有下降的关键。

Social Security Pension New Deal:Assessing the Replacement Rate between Old and New

The paper makes a comparative analysis through the model under actuary assumption,discovers that under the same actuary assumption,the replacement rate of pension before reform is obviously higher than forecasted target replacement rate.The main reason is the interest rate of personal account is low under the situation of empty individual account.After the individual account is consolidated,capital market can gain reasonable interest reward,the accumulation efficient is improved,and the proportion of basic pension is increased,all those factors are the key to a steady pension replacement rate after reform.