Prospects for sustainable development: The significance of population growth

There is nothing static about the notion of optimum population. For any given country, region or the world, the optimum population, or maximum acceptable population, depends on a host of related factors: aspirations of a material kind, the state of the environment, the ability of the economy to provide food, shelter, transport, services, consumer durables and other needs. Many countries, such as the U.K., while today enjoying a reasonable standard of living, may not in fact be living within their carrying capacities. The relation between population and development is a dynamic one. Where the trends established by past and current policies are potentially unsustainable, then there is the risk that population levels may compromise the prospects of maintaining living standards and attaining environmental objectives.This paper draws on the recent world modelGlobEcco, to explore the implications of alternative population growth rates for the future of both the industrialised and developing regions of the world. The model is based on ECCO (Evolution of Capital Creation—previously Carrying Capacity—Options): a new integrative procedure which can test out strategies, technologies and rates of population growth aimed at satisfying both economic and environmental aspirations over the long term.