基于证据理论的温室选型风险效应评价

目前,我国农业设施中存在诸如塑料大棚与玻璃自控温室等温室类型,选择何种温室类型,是需要考虑的首要问题。文章从温室选型风险效应视角,通过构建温室选型风险效应层次结构模型,采用证据理论方法、程序评价玻璃自控温室和塑料大棚的风险效应。结果表明:风险厌恶者宁愿选择塑料温室,而风险偏好者宁愿选择玻璃自控温室。

Risk Evaluation of Greenhouse Type Selection Based on Evidence Theory

There are some types of greenhouses in our country now, such as plastic greenhouse and glass self-controlled greenhouse.To select what type of greenhouse is a primary issue to the producer. This paper evaluates risk effect of glass self-controlled greenhouse and plastic greenhouses from the perspective of risk effect of greenhouse type selection by constructing hierarchical structure model. In this paper, the method and evaluating procedure of evidence theory is used. The results show that the risk averter prefers to plastic greenhouse, while risk appetite prefers to glass automatic self-control greenhouse.