京津冀协同发展下民用汽车污染物减排研究

使用长期能源替代模型（ LEAP ），对2012－2030年京津冀民用汽车的燃油消耗和主要污染物排放进行预测分析。研究发现：在政策情景下，京津冀民用汽车的燃油消耗相对于基准情景降低21?2％，污染物CO、 NOx、 PM、 HC的排放相对于基准情景分别降低63?2％、69?2％、51?7％、56?1％。新标准措施对燃油消耗的降低贡献率为71?5％，对污染物CO、 NOx、 PM、 HC的减排贡献率分别是89?8％、93?8％、91?0％、89?9％。京津范围内的小客车“限购”措施对京津冀燃油消耗的降低贡献率为28?5％，对京津冀污染物CO、 NOx、 PM、 HC的减排贡献率分别是10?2％、6?2％、9?0％、10?1％。政策情景中新标准措施的减排效果远远大于小客车“限购”措施的减排效果。

On Major Pollutants of Civilian Vehicles under the Cooperative Development of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei

Using long?term energy alternative model ( LEAP ) , this paper takes an analysis and forecast on the data of vehicle fuel consumption and major pollutant emissions of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei from the year of 2012 to 2030. It shows that under the policy scenario, Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei civilian vehicle fuel consumption relative to the baseline scenario would decrease 38?8%, and the pollutants of CO, HC, NOx, PM emissions would respectively reduce by 72%, 66?7%, 64?1%, 66%. The contributions that new standard measures has made to the energy consumption reduction is 71?5%, and to the reduction of pollutants of CO, NOx, PM, HC emissions are respectively 89?8%, 93?8%, 91?0% and 89?9%. Contributions that“restriction” measures made to the reduction of fuel consumption is 28?5%, and to the reductions of pollutants of CO, NOx, PM, HC emission are respectively10?2%, 6?2%, 9?0%, 10?1%. Compared to the restriction measures, the new standard measure has larger effect on emission reduction.