中国木质林产品隐含碳排放影响因素动态分析

以2002、2007和2012年投入产出数据为依据，计算了我国木质林产品行业的隐含碳排放，并应用LMDI分解法对木质林产品行业的隐含碳排放变化影响因素进行了动态分析。结果显示，我国隐含碳排放量呈上升趋势，木质林产品行业的隐含碳排放主要用于出口产品使用，中间产品消耗的碳排放水平比较高，在碳减排方面存在较大的空间。木质林产品行业隐含碳排放的拉动因素按其促进效应的大小依次为：经济产出、人口规模和能源结构，能源强度则是抑制木质林产品行业隐含碳排放增长的主要因素。

Dynamic Analysis on the Factors Affecting the Emission of Embodied Carbon in Woody Forest Product in China

The emission of embodied carbon in woody forest product industry in China is calculated based on the input-output table of 2002 , 2007 and 2012 . LMDI decomposition method is applied to analyze the dynamic change of embodied carbon emission in woody forest product industry. The results show that the emission of embodied carbon in recent years tends to rise. The woody forest product with high emission of embodied carbon are mostly exported to foreign countries, and the carbon emission consumed in the intermediate during producing woody forest goods was high, thus there is still much room on the reduction of carbon emission. The driving factors that contribute to the rising of embodied carbon emissions in woody forest product industry are ranked as following:economic output, population size and energy structure. Energy intensity is the major factor eliminating the emission of embodied carbon in the woody forest product industry.