基于投入产出分析的行业吸纳就业能力研究

在我国经济发展进入新常态的背景下，研究不同行业的就业吸纳能力十分必要，有利于更好地开展产业结构调整和就业稳定工作。在分析不同教育程度劳动者就业的行业特征基础上，采用投入产出模型分析了各行业之间关联关系对不同教育程度劳动者就业的影响，进而研究各行业对不同教育程度就业者的直接和间接吸纳能力。研究结果显示，制造业、建筑业和农林牧副渔等行业是吸纳高中及以下，特别是小学及以下学历就业者的最主要部门，对高等教育程度就业者的吸纳主要体现在间接吸纳路径；吸纳高等教育就业者的最主要的部门是教育、公共管理、社会保障和社会组织等。面对传统产业升级和新兴产业对高层次人才需求不断增加的新形势，政策制定部门需要采取相应措施来积极引导不同教育程度就业者，特别是大专院校毕业生的行业选择倾向，使之与国家产业发展和结构调整相协调，并对教育结构、就业结构和产业结构调整进行统筹考虑。

Study on Industrial Employment Absorptive Capacities:an Input-output Analysis

Under the background of new normal economic development in China, the research on employment absorptive capacities in different industries is very necessary, which is beneficial to carry out industrial structure adjustment and employment stability. Based on the analysis of industrial characteristics of employment with different levels of education, this paper analyzes the effects of the correlations between various industries on the employments at different educational levels, and then further studies the direct and indirect employment absorptive capacities at different educational levels in each industry using input-output model. The research results suggest that manufacturing, construction and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery are the most dominated sectors absorbing the persons with high school or below educated, especially primary school or below educated; while the attraction to labors with higher education is mainly reflected on indirect path. The key sectors of employing labors with higher education are education, public management, social security, social organization, et al. The development of emerging industries and the upgrading of traditional industries increase the demand for high-level talents. Under such new situation, policy makers should take corresponding measures to actively guide the labors with different education levels, especially college and university graduates to understand the employment selection tendency aiming to make their selections synchronized with industrial development and structural adjustment, and also systematically consider the adjustment of educational structure, employment structure and industrial structure.