Recruitment to Occupations with a Surplus of Workers: The Unexpected Outcomes of Swedish Demand‐Driven Labour Migration Policy

This article studies the outcomes of the 2008 labour‐migration policy change in Sweden, when most state control was abolished and an employer‐led selection was introduced. The main goal was to increase labour migration from third countries to occupational sectors experiencing labour shortages. The article compares the volume, composition and labour‐market status of labour migrants who arrived before the change in the law with those who arrived after. Labour migrants from EU countries are used as a control group to assess any eventual influence from non‐migration policy determinants. The main outcome of the policy change is that non‐EU labour migration increased – an effect entirely due to the rise in labour migration to surplus occupations. Changes in the composition of the labour migrants explains why those who came after the law change have, on average, a worse labour market position.