我国外汇储备规模增长主要因素的实证分析

通过协整检验和Granger因果关系检验,对影响中国外汇储备规模增长的主要因素进行实证分析。分析结果表明:中国外汇储备规模与年度进出口额、外商直接投资、对外直接投资规模具有长期的稳定关系,年出口规模与外汇储备规模之间具有单向因果关系,是造成外汇储备快速增长的主要原因;外商直接投资和外汇储备规模具有正向相关关系,但影响强度较弱,而对外直接投资对外汇储备有负向相关关系,影响强度最弱。提出采取平衡贸易项目收支战略是化解当前外汇储备规模过多的关键。

An Analysis of Major Factors to Influence Rapid Increase of Foreign Exchange Reserves in China

This article investigates the major factors which influence the rapid increase of foreign exchange reserves in China through the Granger Test and Co Integrated Test. The empirical study indicates:1) There exists a long stabilized relation among foreign exchange reserves, volume of exports, volume of imports, foreign direct investment and external direct investment; 2) The volume of exports and the imports are the most important factors which cause the rapid increase of foreign exchange reserves; 3) The foreign direct investment has positive correlations with foreign exchange reserves but the influence is weak. The external direct investment has negative correlations with the foreign exchange reserves. The influence is the least. It is proposed that to take the strategy of balancing trade of imports and exports is the key to deal with the situation of the current surplus of foreign exchange reserves.