引黄济津应急调水的费用效益分析

为解决天津市的缺水问题，在2009-2010年实施了第10次引黄济津应急调水，耗费3．5782亿元．共调水2．59×10^8m^3。为评估此次调水所产生的经济效益，利用柯布一道格拉斯生产函数估算了水在工业总产出中的效益，进而利用2009年天津投入产出表（用RAS方法从2007年天津市投入产出表转换得到）折算总产出效益，并由此计算此次调水在工业产出中的经济效益。采用分摊系数法计算“引黄济津应急调水”在生活和第三产业中的效益，同时估算出了调水的费用及调水价格。结果表明：仅计算工业、第三产业和生活的调水效益时，调水经济效益较好，效益费用比8．55，总经济效益30．60亿元，该结果可以为再次实施调水提供参考。

Cost-Benefit Analysis of Water Diversion from Yellow River to Tianjin

Due to the problem of water scarcity in Tianjin,the government implemented the 10th water diversion from Yellow River to Tianjin in the years from 2009 to 2010,and 0.259 billion Cubic meter water was transferred with the cost of 357.82 million Yuan.In order to appraise the economic benefits of the water diversion,the Cobb-Douglas production function is introduced to analyze the water benefits in the total industrial output in this paper,and then the 2009 Tianjin input-output table(It is transformed from 2007 Tianjin input-output table with RAS method.) is used to calculate the total output benefits.Accordingly,the benefits of the water diversion in the industrial output are figured out.Then the water diversion benefits on the life and industry,especially on the third industry are calculated with the method of sharing coefficient.Simultaneously,the costs and price of the water diversion are computed.The results indicate that the total benefits are favorable.The benefit expense ratio is 8.55 and the total benefit is 3.06 billion Yuan.Finally,existing problems are analyzed in the appraisal,and the results could provide the reference for the government in the further implementation of water diversion.