农户生计策略识别及其动态转型

利用中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)2013和2015年两期调查数据,构建收入—资产指数识别了中国农户的生计策略及其跨期动态转型,并从生计阶梯的视角阐释了生计转型对贫困治理的意义。研究发现:(1)农户兼业化和生计多样化程度在不断提高;(2)低收益生计策略退出率和高收益生计策略进入率比较低,生计转型主要发生在中等收益的生计策略中,最终整个生计阶梯演化为“葫芦型”,是对“金字塔”型生计阶梯的一种改善;(3)农户家庭当期的生计策略选择对上一期生计策略具有显著的依赖性。自然资本、人力资本、社会资本和金融资本的积累显著促进了农户生计策略的向高收益流动,而物质资本中的农用固定资产所形成的沉没成本,其捆绑效应阻碍了农户的生计多样化。因此,现阶段扶贫政策应该对农户生计资本提供保障,防止各类外生冲击(包括政策、自然)对农户资产的侵蚀,降低农户生计策略向低收益流动或者单一化的风险。

Identification of Livelihood Strategies and Its Dynamic Transition in Rural China

Using CHARLS data of rural China from 2013 and 2015,this paper adopts an income-assets index to identify Chinese rural households’livelihood strategies and its dynamic transition,and provides a useful perspective for the understanding of the nexus between livelihood strategies and poverty alleviation.Research results show:(1)Chinese rural households’livelihood strategies are increasingly diversified;(2)Both the exit rate for low-remunerative livelihood strategies and the entry rate for high-remunerative livelihood strategies are very low.Most transition happen in medium-remunerative livelihood strategies,eventually the livelihood ladder deviates from a“Gourd shape”as an improvement of“Pyramid shape”;(3)Current livelihood strategies dependent significantly on those in the previous year.Natural capital,human capital,social capital,financial capital all have significant pushed the transition to higher-remunerative livelihood,while the binding of agricultural fixed assets—sunk cost in physical capital,impeded the diversification of livelihood strategies.Therefore,the current poverty alleviation policies should safeguard rural households’livelihood capital from any exogenous shock,including policy or natural shock and lower the risks of rural households’livelihood strategies from moving to low profit areas or being homogenized.