Paradoxes and Improvements in Interval Estimation |
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Authors: | Helge Blaker Emil Spjøtvoll |
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Affiliation: | 1. Head Actuary Commercial, If P&2. C Insurance , Box 1374 Vika, N-0114 , Oslo , Norway;3. Department of Mathematical Sciences , Norwegian University of Science and Technology , N-7491 , Trondheim , Norway |
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Abstract: | Cases where confidence sets are empty or include every possible parameter value are an embarrassment to standard theory and difficult to explain to students. To alleviate this problem, and as a convenient way of showing how each parameter value is ranked in view of the data, we propose to plot the confidence set for each possible level, called a confidence curve. Different confidence procedures then lead to different confidence curves. In standard situations involving distributions with a monotone likelihood ratio, we suggest using the confidence curve based on Spjøtvoll's acceptability function. For discrete distributions, this leads to an improvement over usual “exact” confidence intervals. |
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Keywords: | Acceptability Confidence curve Discrete distribution Fieller's problem p value |
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