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Sojourning With the Homogeneous Poisson Process
Authors:Piaomu Liu  Edsel A Peña
Institution:Department of Statistics, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, USA
Abstract:In this pedagogical article, distributional properties, some surprising, pertaining to the homogeneous Poisson process (HPP), when observed over a possibly random window, are presented. Properties of the gap-time that covered the termination time and the correlations among gap-times of the observed events are obtained. Inference procedures, such as estimation and model validation, based on event occurrence data over the observation window, are also presented. We envision that through the results in this article, a better appreciation of the subtleties involved in the modeling and analysis of recurrent events data will ensue, since the HPP is arguably one of the simplest among recurrent event models. In addition, the use of the theorem of total probability, Bayes’ theorem, the iterated rules of expectation, variance and covariance, and the renewal equation could be illustrative when teaching distribution theory, mathematical statistics, and stochastic processes at both the undergraduate and graduate levels. This article is targeted toward both instructors and students.
Keywords:California earthquakes  Iterated expectation  variance  and covariance rules  HPP model validation  Normalized spacings statistics  Renewal process  Renewal function  Size-biased sampling  Sum-quota accrual scheme  Teaching statistics
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