Bayesian univariate space-time hierarchical model for mapping pollutant concentrations in the municipal area of Taranto |
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Authors: | Serena Arima Lorenza Cretarola Giovanna Jona Lasinio Alessio Pollice |
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Institution: | (1) The Joint Graduate School of Energy and Environment, King Mongkut’s University of Technology Thonburi, Bangkok, 10140, Thailand;(2) Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand, Nonthaburi, 11130, Thailand;(3) State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, People’s Republic of China |
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Abstract: | An analysis of air quality data is provided for the municipal area of Taranto (Italy) characterized by high environmental
risks as decreed by the Italian government in the 1990s. In the context of an agreement between Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche—Università
degli Studi di Bari and the local regional environmental protection agency air quality, data were provided concerning six
monitoring stations and covering years from 2005 to 2007. In this paper we analyze the daily concentrations of three pollutants
highly relevant in such an industrial area, namely SO2, NO2 and PM10, with the aim of reconstructing daily pollutants concentration surfaces for the town area. Taking into account the large
amount of sparse missing data and the non normality affecting pollutants’ concentrations, we propose a full Bayesian separable
space-time hierarchical model for each pollutant concentration series. The proposed model allows to embed missing data imputation
and prediction of pollutant concentration. We critically discuss the results, highlighting advantages and disadvantages of
the proposed methodology. |
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