基于PLS的R＆D投入效果的实证分析

运用偏最小二乘(PLS)回归方法,建立Cobb-Douglas生产函数,分析了影响天津市经济发展的各投入要素,在投入向量中引入研究与发展存量T,并充分考虑了研究与发展投资效用的滞后性与长期性。对天津市研究与发展投资收益与边际收益进行分析计算,认为加大研究与发展投入力度是提高天津市科技综合竞争力,实现经济持续稳定、快速增长的最有效途径,为天津市制订不确定条件下研究与发展风险投资战略提供有益的参考。

PLS Regression on the Demonstration Analysis of Impact of R&D Investment

This paper constructed a Cobb-Douglass production function based on a new method of the partial least-squares regression(PLS),the various production factors were analysed and the third factor(R&D stock,T) was added to the devoted vector,the hysteresis and perennial effect of R&D was considered enough.R&D investment marginal output and investment return were calculated and a conclusion was conducted that increasing R&D devotion intensity can improve general competition potential in science and technology.The conclusion can offer beneficial advice to work out steady and quickly increasing economic polices in Tianjin.It can also provide a beneficial reference to work out the R&D strategical investing under uncertain condition.