水资源约束下建设用地需求的系统动力学分析

建设用地需求量预测是土地资源优化配置的关键，对其需求推动和制约因素的合理分析是准确预测的前提。水资源作为城市发展的制约因素，间接影响了城市建设用地的需求规模。把城市可利用水资源作为城市发展的制约因素，初步建立了水资源约束下建设用地需求的系统动力学模型，分析了人口、经济和建设用地供应3个子系统的系统动力学流图，阐明了各子系统内部变量之间的相互关系，明确了建设用地需求的推动和制约因素。为进一步通过计算机模拟方法确定建设用地需求量奠定了基础。

A System Dynamics Analysis of Urban Construction Land Demandunder Water Resources Constraint

Construction land demand prediction is critical to optimal allocation of land resources and the premise of accurate prediction is based on reasonable analysis of factors pushing or restricting construction land demand. As the indispensable resources to city development, the quantity of water resources influences the demand scale of urban construction land. Therefore a preliminary system dynamics model about construction land demand under water resources constraint was built; and system dynamics flow graphs on the subsystem of population, economics and construction land were analyzed. At last the interaction relationship of variable internal subsystems was elucidated, which further defined the factors affecting construction land demand and laid a foundation for further study on construction land demand by computer simulation method.