自贸协定对中国和“一带一路”沿线国家福利影响的实证研究

自“一带一路”倡议提出以来，越来越多的国家参与到“一带一路”的合作与建设中来，而自由贸易协定可以促进国家间的贸易合作，消除或减少贸易壁垒，促进国家社会居民福利。为了定量化测算自由贸易协定给中国以及其他国家带来的贸易和福利影响，采用基于李嘉图比较优势、Eaton Kortum国际贸易模型和部门间投入产出表的Caliendo Parro模型，构建了包括43国家40个部门的国际贸易模型，利用模型中的福利计算公式，计算了中国在2005～2011年期间签订的自贸协定的福利和进出口效应，模拟计算了关税为零后给中国和“一带一路”沿线国家带来的福利变化和进出口贸易效应。测算表明:关税为零后促进了“一带一路”沿线国家和欧盟国家的福利，“一带一路”沿线29国平均增加0.86%、欧盟17国增加达0.72%；促进了中国进出口的增长，如中国对韩国出口增长幅度达128.00%、中国从斯洛伐克的进口增长达140.20%。测算还表明，对于已经和中国签订并执行自贸协定的国家，关税进一步降为零后它们的福利增加和进出口影响不大，如秘鲁福利增加0.06%、智利福利增加0.03%；进出口方面，中国从新西兰的进口将增加24.00%，中国对秘鲁的出口将增加53.8%。测算结果表明:中国应该坚持多边主义和国际贸易自由化，与更多的“一带一路”沿线国家签订自贸协定，利用与“一带一路”沿线国家的自贸区应对中美贸易摩擦，并探索对现代新型自由贸易协定的规则制定和监管措施。

An empirical study on the impact of FTA on welfare of China and Countries under Belt and Road Initiative

Ever since “The Belt and Road” initiative was put forward，more and more countries have been involved in the cooperation and construction under the strategy.Free Trade Agreement(FTA) can promote trade cooperation among countries and eliminate or reduce trade barriers and improve the social welfare of residents of these nations. In order to quantify the trade and welfare impacts of Free Trade Agreement (FTA) on China and other countries，this paper adopts the Caliendo Parro model based on Ricardo’s comparative advantage，Eaton Kortuminternational trade model and Inter sectoral input output table. An international trade model，which includes 40 sectors of 43 countries，was constructed，and the welfare and import and export effects of the Free Trade Agreement signed by China between 2005 and 2011 were calculated by using the welfare calculation formula in the model. The welfare changes and import and export effects of China and “The Belt and Road”countries were simulated and calculated if the tariff was zero. The results showed that the zero tariff will promote the welfare of“The Belt and Road”countries and European Union countries with an average increase of 0.86% in 29 countries，among which, 17 countries of EU reaches 0.72%And it will also promote the growth of China’s imports and exports，such as the increase in China’s exports to South Korea by 128.00%，China’s imports from Slovakia increased by 140.20%. However，for the countries that have signed and implemented Free Trade Agreement with China，their welfare increases in imports and exports were little under zero tariff. For example，the welfare of Peru would increased by 0.06% and the welfare of Chile would increased by 0.03%; In terms of imports and exports，China’s imports from New Zealand would increase by 24.00%，and China’s exports to Peru would increase by 53.80%. Therefore，China should adhere to multilateralism and international trade liberalization，sign Free Trade Agreement with more “The Belt and Road” countries，and use the free trade area with“The Belt and Road”countries to hedge Sino US trade frictions，and explore new free trade agreement rules and regulatory measures in the modern times.