国际贸易与经济地理中量化一般均衡研究综述

在国际贸易和经济地理的前沿研究中，为了评估以贸易自由化、生产率提升、迁移成本减少等宏观政策和经济冲击对于全球经济的总体影响和对不同群体的收入分配影响，越来越多的研究者运用量化一般均衡框架方法进行研究。这一研究方法和范式建立在较为标准化的模型假设上，将经济系统中的各个产品市场和要素市场等综合到一个正式的一般均衡框架中，同时可以灵活地囊括投入产出联系、生产集聚效应、要素市场迁移摩擦、企业生产选址决策、资本动态决策等丰富的理论机制，其校准、估计和计算也非常便利。从一个简单的一般均衡框架出发，介绍这类一般均衡框架的主要元素和经济含义，并回顾此类模型在各个方面的重要延伸与拓展。该类研究的结果表明，贸易自由化、生产率提升等总体层面的政策和经济冲击，不仅会直接影响受到外生冲击的经济个体，也通过国际和国内贸易联系、要素市场的联动等一般均衡机制渠道影响均衡中的其他经济个体；忽略这些一般均衡效应的影响会使得相应研究的结论有所偏差。

Review on quantitative general equilibrium analysis in international trade and economic geography

In the up to date research on international trade and economic geography, to evaluate the impacts of macro level policy and economic shocks, such as free trade, productivity improvement, and reductions in moving costs, on the global economy and wage distribution for different groups, more and more researchers adopt the approach of quantitative general equilibrium analysis. Such an approach builds on relatively standard model assumptions that integrates all products and other market elements within the economic system into one general equilibrium framework, while at the same time is flexible enough to encompass sophisticated theoretical mechanisms, such as input output linkages, production agglomeration, moving frictions on factor markets, firm’s manufacturing location choice, and capital dynamics. Meanwhile, the calibration, estimation and computation of the models is highly feasible. This paper starts from a simple general equilibrium framework by introducing the key elements and its economic indications, and reviews important extensions of this framework in different dimensions. Relevant researches show that macro level policy and economic shocks, such as free trade and productivity improvement, not only directly impact the economic agents being shocked, but also affect other agents in the economy through the general equilibrium channels such as international/intranational trade and factor market linkages. Ignoring these general equilibrium effects would bias the conclusions of relevant researches.