海南省旅游业发展与预测

为了量化研究海南旅游业的发展演进方向，预测其远景旅客数量，在分析美国夏威夷州和中国台湾地区旅游业演进发展历程的基础上，将海南省旅游业目前的发展境遇与充分发展的其它旅游海岛进行详细对比，发现美国夏威夷州旅游业的发展环境与模式同海南省更加相似。利用生命周期理论描述旅游地的演进过程，并分析演进过程中各个阶段的成因及特征，采用逻辑斯蒂模型对生命周期曲线进行拟合；以进入演进阶段后期的美国夏威夷州旅游业发展历程为模板，构建海南旅游业发展历程的逻辑斯蒂模型；通过对比中美两国居民生活水平情况，分析海南省目前所处的演进阶段并拟合出其演进发展的生命周期模型。研究结果表明:2018年海南省旅游业正处于发展阶段和巩固阶段的拐点处，其未来的发展速度将逐步放缓，海南省远景游客接待人次上限将在1.2亿人次左右，是当前接待游客量的两倍左右；针对海南省远景预测发展情况，提出做好远景规划、平衡地区发展和保护生态环境的建议，维护海南省旅游业的高质量、可持续发展。

Long term predication of tourism in Hainan province

The aim of this study is to quantify the evolution of tourism in Hainan province and forecast long term visitor numbers using the experiences drawn from international island resorts. After analysing tourism development in both Hawaii and Taiwan province, the tourism industry in Hainan province was carefully compared with international island resorts. We found that the development environment in Hainan province was more similar to that in Hawaii. The tourism area life cycle theory describes the evolution of a tourist destination, and a logistical model is commonly used to fit the life cycle curve. The development of Hawaii, which we already included at the end of the life cycle theory, is considered to be an evolutionary model and described as a logistical model. To describe its long term prediction, by comparing the living standards of residents between China and the US, we confirmed the development stage of Hainan province and established its logistical model. We identified that the tourism in Hainan province is at an inflection point between the development stage and consolidation stage of the life cycle theory in 2018, which means the growth rate would slow down in the future. Moreover, the number of tourists in Hainan province is expected to be 120 million at the end of the life cycle, which is twice compared to the number right now. Thus, because of the prospect of tourism development in Hainan province, we put forward a long term plan, balancing area differences and protecting the environment to prevent the tourism industry of Hainan province from slowing down.