基于城市复合生态系统理论的城市生态交通发展评价

针对当前中国城市化进程中城市交通存在的各种外部性问题,基于城市复合生态系统理论,构建了综合评价城市生态交通发展水平的指标体系,综合运用层次分析法和数据包络分析法构建评价模型,以此模型为基础,第一次提出了生态交通指数的计算方法,最后从区域协同发展视角出发,创新性地利用Theil系数对区域内城市生态交通发展水平的空间差异进行解构。为验证该模型的可行性及其对现实政策规划的指导作用,运用该模型对2006~2015年京津冀区域内5个城市的生态交通发展水平进行了评价研究。实证结果表明,该模型可行性良好,实证结果能够客观反映各个城市生态交通发展状况及存在问题,有利于指导现实政策规划；近10年来京津冀区域内部发展差异逐渐缩小,但整体发展水平仍然较慢,因此科学系统且具体可实施的规划方案是加快推动京津冀交通一体化的重要举措；区域内部城市生态交通发展水平随经济发展整体上呈现出“倒U型”发展趋势,亟待探究北京、天津等大城市生态交通指数的上升拐点；该区域平均生态交通指数呈现出下降趋势的主要原因在于机动车的过快增长,因而需要在短期内控制机动车的增长速度与排放水平,提高公共交通基础设施的投资建设水平并发展低碳交通方式则是长期内需要重点关注的问题。

Evaluation research on urban ecological traffic development based on urban complex ecosystem

Aiming at various external problems of urban transportation in China’s urbanization process,an index system for comprehensively evaluating the development level of urban ecological transportation was constructed based on theory of urban complex ecosystem.The analytic hierarchy process and data envelopment analysis methods were used to construct the evaluation model.Based on this model,the calculation method of ecological transportation index was proposed for the first time.Finally,from the perspective of regional collaborative development,the Theil coefficient was innovatively used to deconstruct the spatial differences of urban ecological transportation development level in the region.To verify the feasibility of the model and its guiding role for the practical policy planning,the model was used to evaluate the ecological transportation development level of 5 cities in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei form 2006 to 2015.The empirical results show that the model is feasible,and the results can objectively reflect the development status and problems of each city’s ecological transportation,which is conducive to guiding the realistic policy planning; in the past 10 years,the internal development differences of the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region have gradually narrowed,but the overall development level is still slow.Therefore,a scientific system and the concretely implementable planning plan are important measures to accelerate the integration of Beijing Tianjin Hebei transportation; the development level of urban ecological transportation within the region shows the development trend of “inverted U shaped” with the overall development of the economy,and it is urgent to explore the rising point of the ecological transportation index of big cities such as Beijing and Tianjin; the main reason for the downward trend of the average ecological transportation index in this region is the excessive growth of motor vehicles.Therefore,it is necessary to control the growth rate and emission level of motor vehicles in a short period of time.Improving the investment and construction level of public transportation infrastructure and developing low“carbon transportation modes are issues that need long”term focus. 