中国农村人口结构变化及就业选择

为研究中国农村人口结构变迁规律，基于2003～2012年全国农村固定观察点农户跟踪调查数据，以山西10个村的样本为例考察了近10年来农村人口结构变化趋势和轨迹。研究发现，农村人口10年来平均年龄增长了4.3岁，而农业劳动力平均年龄增长5.6岁从性别和在家居住时间看，46岁及以上女性和61岁及以上的老年人是农村生产生活的主力军从工作时间和就业方向选择看，尽管农村劳动力仍以家庭农业经营为主，但外出就业和受雇用已成为农村劳动力实现充分就业的主要手段从文化程度和健康状况看，滞留在农村的农业人口质量较差。研究认为，随着农村青壮年劳动力的外流，中国农村人口结构和就业结构已发生巨大变迁，农村人口“老龄化”和“空心化”、农业“女性化”和“老年化”特征突显，这些问题将深刻影响中国未来社会经济发展人口老龄化问题的重中之重是农村人口“老龄化”及养老问题，新农村建设与户籍制度改革应同步推进，农业现代化建设需要关注农业生产的“老年化”和“女性化”特征，以及关注计划生育政策调整与经济增长可持续性的关系。

Structure change of rural population and employment choice in China

:In order to grasp the changing law of rural population structure in China，based on the survey data of national rural households in fixed observation point from 2003 to 2012, the sample of 10 villages in Shanxi province was used as an example to examine the trends and trajectories of rural population structure in recent 10 years.The study finds that the average age of the rural population increases by 4.3 years，while the average age of the agricultural labor force increases by 5.6 years.According to gender and living time at home, the females of 46 years and above as well as the elderly of 61 years and over are the main force of production and living in rural village. From the perspective of work hours and employment selection，although the rural labor force is dominated by the household’s farming, migrating employment and employment have become the main means of achieving full employment of rural labor force.In terms of education level and health status，the quality of agricultural population that is remained in countryside is poor. The results show that the structure of rural population and employment structure in China have undergone tremendous changes with the outflow of rural labor in young adults.The characteristics of “aging” and “hollowing out” of rural population and “feminization” and “aging” of agriculture are prominent, which will have a profound impact on the social and economic development of China in the future. The most important issue of population aging is the “aging” of the rural population and annuity problem,the reform of the new rural construction and the reform of household registration system should be promoted simultaneously,and the agricultural modernization needs to pay attention to the “aging” and “feminization” of agricultural production, as well as focusing on the relationship between the adjustment of family planning policies and the sustainability of economic growth.