中国长期照护养老服务供需平衡研究

在快速老龄化背景下,慢性病并发症使得残障失能老人数量快速增加,而从事长期照护养老服务的专业人员十分短缺,老年人长期照护问题亦将愈加突出。运用年龄移算法预测未来老年人口规模结构,并通过年龄别残障率测算未来失能老年人口变动状况,进而得到全国未来长期照护养老服务需求量。测算结果表明:2016~2050年,中国失能老年人口将从652.02万人增至1 643.43万人,年均增加29.16万人；如果采取专业机构进行长期照护,2050年所需长期照护养老服务人员150万人；在劳动年龄人口下降过程中,大幅增加养老服务人员配置量将给未来劳动力供给带来严峻挑战,并将在一定程度上制约经济增长。针对长期照护养老服务供需失衡问题,有必要采取如下4个方面措施:一是坚持长期照护服务社会化,体现长期照护服务规模效应；二是提高服务人员素质,有效提升长期照护服务效率；三是鼓励低龄老人从事长期照护服务,有效开拓养老服务渠道；四是加强社区卫生服务能力建设,从根本上减少长期照护服务需求,实现长期照护服务资源供需动态平衡。

Dalance between supply and demand of long-term care services in China

In the context of rapid ageing,chronic complications makes disability elderly increase rapidly.In the meantime,there is a shortage of professionals engaged in long term care pension services,the elderly long term care problem will also increasingly prominent.Age shift algorithm is applied to forecast the scale and structure of future elderly population,which is based to calculate the disability elderly population changes and get the national long term care future pension service demand.The results show that the number of elderly people in China will increase from 6.52 million to 16.43 million in 2016 2050,with an average annual increase of 292 thousand.If professional institutions are adopted for long term care,the number of long term care providers will reach to 1.5 million in 2050.In the process of declining working age population,a large increase in the allocation of pension service personnel will bring severe challenges to the future labor supply and restrict economic growth to some extent.In view of the imbalance between supply and demand of long term care services,it is necessary to take the following four measures:The first is to socialize the long term care service and reflect the scale effect of long term care service.The second is to improve the quality of service personnel and effectively improve the efficiency of long term care service.The third is to encourage young people to engage in long term care services and effectively expand the channels for old age care services.The fourth is to strengthen the capacity building of community health services and reduce the demand for long term care services fundamentally,and then to realize the dynamic balance between supply and demand of long term care services.