Procedures for Evaluating Trends in Public Opinion

This article expresses a variety of theories of public opinionchange in terms of a formal model for analyzing public opiniondata. Statistical criteria are proposed whereby models of varyingcomplexity can be accepted or rejected. The observation is madethat certain substantive theories of change are more parsimoniousthan others in terms of their statistical predictions. The modelfor analyzing change presented here is based on the premisethat the most parsimonious theories should be accepted or rejectedfirst.