大国开放条件下转基因棉花研发福利效应研究

采用大国开放条件下农业研发经济剩余模型对1996-2008年间转基因棉花研发福利效应进行研究。结果表明：因技术进步所产生的＂农业踏车效应＂朝不利于农民福利的方向发展,包括我国棉农在内的各国棉花生产者都因种植转基因棉花而在经济利益上遭受显著损失;消费者是新技术的最大获益者,并且随着转基因棉花采用率的提高其将获益更大,而研发者也因知识产权保护获得可观的技术使用费;对一国整体而言,以中国和印度为代表的发展中国家是新技术的最大获益者。

Study on R&D Welfare Effects of Genetically Modified Cotton under Open Condition

An empirical study on RD welfare effects of genetically modified cotton from 1996 to 2008 was carried out by using agricultural RD economic surplus model under the open condition.The results showed that,firstly,agricultural treadmill effect triggered by technological progress is harmful to cotton farmers＇ welfare,and including China＇s cotton planter,cotton producers in every country suffer notable loss on economic benefits by growing genetically modified cotton;secondly,cotton consumers are the biggest gainers of this new technology,and with the rising of adoption rate of genetically modified cotton,consumer surplus will have much more increase,while the researchers will get considerable technology fees because of intellectual property rights protection;thirdly,for a country as a whole,the developing countries such as China and India are the biggest winners of this new technology.