| 中国人口老龄化的地区聚类及影响因素分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 孙 蕾,谢 越.中国人口老龄化的地区聚类及影响因素分析[J].西北人口,2014(1):1-5,12. |
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| 作者姓名： | 孙 蕾 谢 越 |
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| 作者单位： | 华东师范大学金融与统计学院,上海200241 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家社会科学基金项目“两岸人口老龄化的区域差异、成因比较研究”（项目编号：12CRK003）：上海市哲学社会科学规划项目“人口老龄化的区域差异研究”（项目编号：2011EJB001）;高等学校学科创新引智计划（项目编号：B14019）. |
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| 摘 要： | 本文用离差平方和法对我国31个省、市、自治区2011年、2010年和2000年的人口老龄化相关变量（如老少比、年均人口净增长率等五个变量）进行Q型系统聚类分析，并用2011年的各类经济、社会变量对老少比进行主成分回归。研究发现：各地区依老龄化特点可以分为四类；影响老龄化程度的主要因素有社会发达程度、居民生活水平和性别比；近年来部分发达地区人口快速增长且持续老龄化，而人口流出严重的欠发达地区老龄化程度加剧。
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| 关 键 词： | 人口老龄化 老少比 聚类分析 主成分回归 |
Cluster Analysis and Factor Analysis on Population Aging in China |
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| SUN Lei,XIE Yue.Cluster Analysis and Factor Analysis on Population Aging in China[J].Northwest Population Journal,2014(1):1-5,12. |
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| Authors: | SUN Lei XIE Yue |
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| Institution: | (School of Finance and Statistics, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China) |
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| Abstract: | This paper uses the method of Q-mode hierarchical cluster analysis on five population aging related variables in 2011,2010 and 2000,such as aged-child ratio,annuM net growth rate of population and so on. Then we apply a principal component regression model with aged-child ratio as the dependent variable in 2011. The results show that each region can be divided into four categories according to the aging characteristics ;the main influencing factors on aging are development levels of different areas,household living standard, and gender. It is concluded that some developed areas with rapid population growth continue to age, and the aging problem is being aggravated in less developed areas with huge outflow population. |
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| Keywords: | Population Aging Aged-Child Ratio Cluster Analysis Principal Component Regression |
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