我国房地产业与宏观经济运行状况互动研究

本文基于协整理论、VAR模型等方法，通过对国房指数和宏观经济景气指数数据的计算和分析，探讨了我国房地产业发展与宏观经济运行状况的关系及其之间的影响机制等问题。首先通过单位根检验、协整检验等方法，发现国房指数和宏观经济景气指数间存在长期协整关系，且宏观经济景气指数对国房指数具有单向因果关系；其次通过脉冲反应和方差分解，进一步得到相互影响关系的反应强度、变化规律等，并研究了不同结构冲击的影响程度；最后建立VEC模型，发现长期趋势的偏离在短时间内可以得到修正且修正作用明显，宏观经济景气信息对房地产市场的影响较为迅速。

Empirical Research on the Interactive Relationship between Real Estate Industry and Macroeconomic Situation in China

Based on Co- integration theory and VAR model, an empirical research was conducted on the relationship between the development of China＇s real estate industry and the macroeconomic situation and its impact mechanism via the calculation and analysis of the national real estate industry prosperity index and the macroeconomic prosperity index. Firstly, with Unit Root Test, Co - integration Test, Causality Test, and co - integration equations, we proved the existence of long - term co - integra- tion between the indexes and the unidirectional causality. Secondly, by creating an Impulse Response Function and Variance De- composition, we can further extract some factors regarding the relations between them such as response intensity, changing law and duration, the importance of their mutual impacts to each other. Lastly, by means of VEC model, we found that the deviation from the long - term trend in a short period of time can be corrected, that the corrective action is obvious, and that the macroeco- nomic prosperity information on the impact of the real estate market is rapid.