A comparison of models using removal effort to estimate animal abundance

This paper compares methods for modeling the probability of removal when variable amounts of removal effort are present. A hierarchical modeling framework can produce estimates of animal abundance and detection from replicated removal counts taken at different locations in a region of interest. A common method of specifying variation in detection probabilities across locations or replicates is with a logistic model that incorporates relevant detection covariates. As an alternative to this logistic model, we propose using a catch–effort (CE) model to account for heterogeneity in detection when a measure of removal effort is available for each removal count. This method models the probability of detection as a nonlinear function of removal effort and a removal probability parameter that can vary spatially. Simulation results demonstrate that the CE model can effectively estimate abundance and removal probabilities when average removal rates are large but both the CE and logistic models tend to produce biased estimates as average removal rates decrease. We also found that the CE model fits better than logistic models when estimating wild turkey abundance using harvest and hunter counts collected by the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources during the spring turkey hunting season.