Two tests for sequential detection of a change-point in a nonlinear model |
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Authors: | Gabriela Ciuperca |
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Institution: | Université de Lyon, Université Lyon 1, CNRS, UMR 5208, Institut Camille Jordan, Bat. Braconnier, 43, blvd du 11 novembre 1918, F-69622 Villeurbanne Cedex, France |
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Abstract: | In this paper, two tests, based on weighted CUSUM of the least squares residuals, are studied to detect in real time a change-point in a nonlinear model. A first test statistic is proposed by extension of a method already used in the literature but for the linear models. It is tested under the null hypothesis, at each sequential observation, that there is no change in the model against a change presence. The asymptotic distribution of the test statistic under the null hypothesis is given and its convergence in probability to infinity is proved when a change occurs. These results will allow to build an asymptotic critical region. Next, in order to decrease the type I error probability, a bootstrapped critical value is proposed and a modified test is studied in a similar way. A generalization of the Hájek–Rényi inequality is established. |
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Keywords: | Sequential detection Change-points Weighted CUSUM Bootstrap Size test Asymptotic behavior |
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