OPTIMIRUS. Simulating Population Change in the Russian Far East

This article examines the population trends in the cities of the Russian Far East between the two census years 1989 and 2002. Three geographical models – Rank-Size Rule, Temperature per Capita and a simple gravity model – are used to describe the direction of these population trends. An economic efficiency function is constructed from the three models to simulate an ideal population distribution for the Russian Far East. The heart of the simulation is a conjugate gradient optimisation of the economic efficiency function. The results serve as an important backdrop to discussions of current population trends and serve as an important backdrop to discussions of current population trends and as basis for recommendations concerning future changes in the spatial distribution of population in the region.Mueller, K., et Bradshaw M. J., 2006. OPTIMIRUS. Une simulation des variations de population dans l’Extrême-Orient russe. Revue européenne de démographie, 22:105–126.