基于财富目标的居民储蓄行为

内容提要：本文在借鉴缓冲储备理论的基础上，结合中国实际提出了关于城镇居民储蓄行为的假设：即中国城镇居民同样也有财富目标，当实际财富低于该目标时，预防性储蓄动机就会占据主导地位，消费者将减少消费、增加储蓄。与缓冲储备理论的最大不同是，本文假定财富目标与持久收入的比率不是一个固定的值，当预期支出比预期收入增长的更快时，为了避免未来可能发生的流动性约束，消费者就不得不提高储蓄率。利用我国1999-2005年28个省的数据得到的估计结果表明，中国城镇居民的高储蓄现象可以从三个方面解释：一是就业率下降加大了居民收入的不确定性；二是教育、医疗价格上涨过快以至于许多家庭的预期支出增长率超过了预期收入的增长速度，三是收入差距扩大抑制了中、低收入家庭的消费需求。本文的另外一个重要发现是，近年来发展迅速的消费信贷对储蓄率的影响并不显著。

Household Saving Behavior Based on Wealth Target

Based on the buffer-stock save theory and the real situation in China, the author raised the following hypothesis on China's household saving behavior: China's households also adjust their saving on wealth target,when they have a wealth target higher than real wealth,people cut down their consumption and save more for precautionary motive;However,different from the buffer-stock save theory,the ratio of wealth target to permanent income in China is not a fixed one.Specifically,when people expect their future expenditure to increase faster than income,they increase their saving rate to avoid liquidity constraint in future.To test the above hypothesis,the author used data of 28 provinces in China from 1999 to 2005 for empirical study.The result shows that reasons for China's high saving rate lie in three aspects as: decreased employment rate,higher education and medical care cost,and wide income gap.It also suggests that consumption credit promoted in recent years did not work much to the saving rate of China.