中国股市与经济增长的非线性依从关系研究

 针对国内学者在研究中国股市与经济增长关系的实证研究方法上的不足，运用非线性平滑转换回归（STR）模型刻画中国股市与经济增长的内在依从关系。研究结果表明：中国股市与经济增长的关系呈现分段特征，并在线性与非线性关系间转换。近年来，随着股市各项制度的逐渐完善，股市与经济增长的非线性关系开始凸显，即两者间的相互促进作用开始逐步表现出来。然而，美国金融危机的外在冲击严重削弱了这种相互促进关系，2008年之后股市与经济增长的相互影响机制又迅速回到线性关系上。

Study on the Non-linear Relationship between China's Stock Market Development and the Economic Growth

In contrast to the deficiency of Chinese scholars’ empirical methods in analyzing the relationship between China’s stock market development and the economic growth, the non-linear smooth transition (STR) model is employed to capture the internal relationship between them. It’s showed that: the relationship between them is divided into different periods, and the relationship is changing between linearity and non-linearity. Recently with the systems of the stock market improving, the non-linear relationship between them is becoming more and more remarkable. i.e., the mutual motivation is gradually revealed. However, this mutual motivation relation is strongly weakened by the financial crisis, the mutual infection mechanism quickly returned to linearity after 2008.