Water Resources,Land Exploration and Population Dynamics in Arid Areas - The Case of the Tarim River Basin in Xinjiang of China

Water resources are the root of life and development in arid areas like the Xinjiang Autonomous Region of China. In the Tarim Basin in Xinjiang, one of the driest places in the world, melting glaciers are the exclusive water source. Population growth, in particular in-migration, has greatly changed the ecological conditions of the Tarim River Basin in the past 2,500 years. Our research aims to study the interactions between population growth and changes in water and land resources, crossing the boundaries of the different reaches in the Tarim River Basin over the past 50 years. Time series data on population changes and economic development, water volume and quality, land use and land cover changes, and prevalence of morbidity relevant to water quality are collected to study the relationship between these factors. Adopting a statistical analysis and systems dynamics approach, we quantify the effect of population growth on water use and land degradation. ¹This paper results from the research project “Population changes and land degradation in Xinjiang of China,” funded by the Wellcome Trust Foundation (grant no. 065867). The authors appreciate the comments from the anonymous reviewers, and wish to extend thanks to the Asian MetaCentre for Population and Sustainable Development Analysis, and to Warren Sanderson, Wolfgang Lutz, Brenda Yeoh, Vipan Prachuabmoh, Min Weifang, Zheng Xiaoying, Brian O’Neill, Steve Hamburg, Laura Sadovnikoff, Verene Koh, and Sam Balakrishnan, for their invaluable support and help.