Making the Lead: Article and Contextual Correlates of Front-Page Coverage within the Immigration-Crime Debate

Abstract

While an abundance of literature demonstrates that immigration is associated with lower rates of crime, public opinion expects the opposite. There remain many reasons for such incongruity, including crystalized political ideologies and structural barriers to assimilation. The current study examines another important dimension: media narratives among the most prominent immigration and crime news articles. Specifically, we explore how news outlets narratively describe or “frame” the link between immigration and crime and, in turn, how such frames influence the prominence of news stories. Using content analysis of over 3,800 articles from 2008 to 2012 geo-located and paired with a host of macro-level data, multi-level models reveal that (1) one-third of local stories describe immigration as crime-increasing; (2) articles that link immigration to rising rates of crime are more likely to appear on the front page of newspapers, as are stories describing immigration’s impact on the justice system or the rights of immigrants within it; and (3) articles published in places with lower rates of crime, higher median household incomes, and smaller foreign-born populations are more likely to feature on the front page. We conclude with implications for ongoing public policy debates and research on immigration and crime.