香港人口死亡率演变及其未来发展

与其它发展地区类似 ,二战以后香港人口死亡率已经经历了显著的下降 ,达到了一个非常低的水平。在这种极低水平的现状下 ,香港人口死亡率进一步下降的空间还有多大呢 ?本文基于香港人口死亡率历史数据 ,探讨了其演变趋势 ,同时利用Lee -Carter模型对香港未来 5 0年分性别的人口死亡率进行了预测。如果我们将预测结果与最近的官方预测数据进行比较 ,可以发现 ,本文Lee -Carter模型预测的未来香港人口死亡率下降趋势比官方预测结果要乐观

Evolution and Projection of Mortality of Hong Kong Population

Just like other developed regions, Hong Kong has experienced a steady decline in mortality since after Word War II. Its mortality is already extremely low. Given the very low mortality already achieved, is there much more room for further improvement in Hong Kong's mortality decline? This paper examined the level, rate and past changes of mortality in Hong Kong, and based on the historical series of the mortality evolution, this paper also applied the Lee-Carter model to mortality forecasts for each sex separately in Hong Kong for next fifty years. If we compare the results with the most recent official forecasts, our projections on mortality decline based on the Lee-Carter model in this paper are more optimistic than the official forecasts.