欧洲生育支持政策效果的评估及启示——基于模糊集定性比较的分析

采用组态比较方法中的模糊集定性比较分析,系统性检验了2000—2018年29个欧洲典型国家社会情境和现行生育支持政策的条件组合与生育率变化的关系,试图为我国借鉴欧洲国家生育支持政策提供新的研究思路。通过欧洲各国三类生育支持政策(育儿津贴、生育假期和儿童照料设施供给)与三类社会情境的条件(经济发展水平、性别平等及家庭重视文化)进行必要条件检验,得到五类影响生育率的组态方案。通过将不同社会情境下各国生育支持政策的实施效果与我国国情的比较和讨论,本研究提出,我国生育支持政策的出台要充分考虑地区差异:对于性别较为平等的经济发达地区,大力发展儿童照料设施和有针对性的育儿津贴可以稳定生育率;对于性别平等较差的西部欠发达地区,育儿津贴更能提高生育率;在性别差距较大、重视后代的经济发达地区,较慷慨的生育假期和提供儿童照料设施双管齐下会有助于提升生育水平。

Evaluation Study on European Fertility Supportive Policies and Its Implications:Based on FsQCA

By using fsQCA of configurational comparative method,the study examines the relationship between conditional combination of social context and current fertility policies and fertility changes in 29 typical European countries from 2000 to 2018,in an attempt to provide new research ideas for China to learn from European countries’fertility support polices.Five configuration schemes affecting fertility were obtained by testing the necessary conditions for three types of family policies in European countries(i.e.,child-care allowance,parental leave and provision of child-care facilities)and three types of social contextual conditions(i.e.,level of economic development,gender equality,and family valuing culture).By comparing and discussing the implementation effects of family policies between with China’s social context,this study proposes regional differences should be fully considered in the introduction of fertility support policies in China.In the developed cities with gender equality,the vigorous development of child-care facilities and targeted child-care allowance can stabilize fertility rate.For the less developed areas with gender inequality,child allowance are more likely to increase fertility rate;the more generous parental leave and child care facilities can help to raise fertility level in the developed areas where the gender gap is larger and offspring is valued.