参与全球价值链对中国出口贸易碳强度的影响

构建出口贸易碳强度指标，将出口贸易增加值与隐含碳置于同一分析框架，研究参与全球价值链对中国出口贸易碳强度的影响。在对中国参与全球价值链与出口贸易碳强度演变趋势进行测算的基础上，构建计量经济学模型，实证研究不同参与全球价值链指标对中国整体与细分行业出口贸易碳强度的影响及规模效应、结构效应和技术效应的调节作用。研究结果表明：中国整体行业主要以后向方式参与全球价值链，制造业全球价值链参与度更深而服务业位置指数更高；中国整体出口贸易碳强度以2005年为界先上升后下降；不同要素密集型制造业与服务业出口贸易碳强度水平差异明显。除位置指数外，全球价值链前向与后向参与度、前向生产长度和深度GVC指数对中国整体出口贸易碳强度的影响均为正，且深度GVC指数的提高对出口贸易碳强度的促进作用最显著。相对于制造业，服务业后向参与度和前向生产长度的提高对出口贸易碳强度的促进作用减弱；相对于劳动密集型行业，资本密集型行业位置指数的提高会进一步降低出口贸易碳强度，资本与知识密集型行业深度GVC的提高对出口贸易碳强度的拉动作用减弱。规模效应的调节作用不明显，结构和技术效应均会降低前向参与度与深度GVC对出口贸易碳强度的正向影响。在研究结论的基础上提出降低中国出口贸易碳强度的政策建议。

Impact of China's Participation in Global Value Chains on Carbon Intensity of Export

Carbon intensity in exports(CIE)was proposed to co-investigate the value added and carbon emissions in exports, and explore the influence of global value chain(GVC)participation on China''s carbon intensity in exports. China''s GVC participation and CIE evolution features are analyzed during 2002-2014. Econometric models were constructed to explore the influence of different GVC participation indexes on China''s overall and industrial CIE, as well as the adjusting effects of economic scale, trade structure and technological progress. The results show that:China''s overall industries mainly participate in GVC in a backward way, manufacture industry has a deeper GVC participation degree, while service industry has a higher position. China''s overall CIE shows a rising and falling trend before and after 2005. CIE levels of different input intensive manufacture and service industries were significantly different. In addition to position index, GVC forward and backward participation degree, and forward production length and depth GVC index have positive effects on China''s overall CIE, and the improvement of depth GVC index has the most significant effect on CIE. Compared with manufacture industry, the improvement of backward participation degree and forward production length of service industry weakens the promoting effect on CIE. Compared with labor-intensive industries, the improvement of position index of capital intensive industries will further reduce CIE, and the improvement of depth GVC of capital and knowledge intensive industries weakens the pulling effect on CIE. The adjusting effect of economic scale is not significant, trade structure and technological progress will reduce the positive impact of forward participation and depth GVC on CIE. Finally, policy implications are suggested to reduce CIE in China based on the conclusion of the research.