U.S. COMMERCIAL BANK LENDING THROUGH 2008:Q4: NEW EVIDENCE FROM GROSS CREDIT FLOWS |
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| Authors: | SILVIO CONTESSI JOHANNA L FRANCIS |
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| Institution: | 1. Contessi: Economist, Research Division, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, P.O. Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166‐0442. Phone 314‐444‐7410, Fax 314‐444‐8731, E‐mail silvio.contessi@frb.org.;2. Francis: Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Fordham University, E‐507 Dealy Hall, Bronx, NY 10458. Phone 718‐817‐4055, Fax 718‐817‐3518, E‐mail ajofrancis@fordham.edu |
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| Abstract: | What was hiding behind the aggregate commercial bank loans through the end of 2008? We use balance sheet data for every insured U.S. commercial bank from 1999:Q1 to 2008:Q4 to construct credit expansion and credit contraction series and provide new evidence on changes in lending. Until 2008:Q3 net credit growth was not dissimilar to the 1980 and 2001 recessions. However, between the third and fourth quarter credit contraction grew larger than credit expansion across all types of loans and for the largest banks. With the inclusion of 2008:Q4 data our series most resemble the intensification of the Savings and Loan crisis. (JEL E44, E51, G21) |
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