Teachers and the birth rate

A theoretical model is developed in which the market for teachers is linked to the time path of fertility in the general population. The model is simple in its components but when the components are combined they form a complex long-memory dynamic system. Simulation experiments are carried out to investigate the effects of changes in fertility rates on supply/requirements imbalances in the teachers' market, the median age of teachers, and other variables. The model (and by implication, the real-world system) is found to be highly volatile in response to fertility variations.This study was supported by a grant from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. The authors are grateful for the able research assistance provided by Guy Brockington and Renqun Wang and for the helpful comments of the referees.