考虑安全性的层次分析法

本文从决策的现实特点出发,提出了安全矩阵、风险矩阵、安全指数等一系列概念;并进一步给出了在运用决策方法(如:AHP等)时考虑安全性的具体方法。该方法(1)可表示、度量、计算、分析决策结果对安全性要求的具体程度;(2)可解决某些AHP无法直接解决的决策问题;(3)可使决策者对决策结果有重要的安全感。值得指出的是,本文给出了安全指数的解析表达式,并解决了式中参数的辩识问题,从而使本方法更具实用价值。

The Analytic Hierarchy Process with Safety Analysis

Starting from the securement problems in human realistic decision making,the concepts of the safety matrix,the safety index and the risk matrix are put forward in this paper.To go as tep further,the method of safety analysis in decision making is given.By using the method (1)the degree of safety in the result of some decision making could beexpressed,measured,calcu～lated and analysed; (2)some problems of decision making,which can not be solved by AHP,could be solved; (3)the decision maker swould ge tthe sense of safety on hisoptions. Importantly,that the way to identify parameter about the safety index is given here make the method in this paper more practical.