国际物流与国际贸易关系的实证研究

根据我国2002—2008年外贸物流与交易统计数据，采用基于VAR模型的脉冲响应函数对国际物流与国际贸易的关系进行动态实证分析。分析结果表明，发展现代物流产业可以显著提升我国的对外贸易水平，但当前我国快速发展的国际贸易对物流业发展的拉动作用微弱，加工贸易占主体地位且缺乏贸易竞争力的对外贸易结构、国际物流服务有效供给不足是国际贸易对物流业发展驱动不显著的主要原因。

Empirical study on relationship between international logistics and international trade

According to the statistics of international logistics and trade of China from 2002 to 2008, impulse response function based on VAR model is applied to fulfill dynamic empirical analysis on the relationship between international logistics and international trade. The result shows that the development of modern logistics industry can significantly improve the level of Chinese international trade. However, the rapidly developing international trade of China has weak pulling effect on the development of logistics industry. The international trade structure that processing trade takes the main proportion and lack of trade competitiveness, and the lack of effective supply of international logistics service are the main reasons for the insignificant driving effect of international trade on logistics industry.