| 制造业上市公司财务困境预测——基于panel logit模型的实证分析 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 卢永艳,王维国.制造业上市公司财务困境预测——基于panel logit模型的实证分析[J].统计与信息论坛,2010,25(4):47-51. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 卢永艳 王维国 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1. 东北财经大学信息工程学院,辽宁,大连,116025
2. 东北财经大学数学与数量经济学院,辽宁,大连,116025 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 目前关于财务困境预测的模型大多是局限于横截面数据的静态模型，忽视了公司的财务状况是不断变化的事实。为了揭示公司财务状况的变化过程，利用面板数据建立了panel logit概率模型。在变量的选取上，不仅考虑了财务指标，还考虑了股权集中度、公司治理结构和审计意见等方面的指标。研究结果表明，panel logit模型的判别准确率比较高，可以利用公司当年的数据预测下一年度公司陷入财务困境的可能性。
|
| 关 键 词： | pand logit模型 财务困境 预测 |
Financial Distress Prediction of Manufacturing Listed Companies Based on Panel Logit Model |
| |
| LU Yong-yan,WANG Wei-guo.Financial Distress Prediction of Manufacturing Listed Companies Based on Panel Logit Model[J].Statistics & Information Tribune,2010,25(4):47-51. |
| |
| Authors: | LU Yong-yan WANG Wei-guo |
| |
| Institution: | LU Yong-yan1,WANG Wei-guo2(1.School of Information Engineering,Dongbei University of Finance , Economics,Dalian 116025,China,2.School of Mathematics , Quantitative Economics,China) |
| |
| Abstract: | The recent studies on financial distress are mostly confined to static econometric method based on cross-sectional financial data,and ignore the fact that the companies' financial status is a dynamic process.In order to show the change of companies in financial position,the paper established the financial distress prediction model based on panel Logit.On the selection of variables,we select not only financial ratios,but also indexes on ownership concentration, corporate governance and audit opinion.Empirica... |
| |
| Keywords: | panel logit model financial distress forecast |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
